Brazil, Spain favored to win World Cup

IF form holds, Brazil will be celebrating its record sixth World Cup championship. Of course, these tournaments aren't played on paper so anything can happen.

My prediction is expect some serious surprises in South Africa. That can mean anything. My sense is that a number of favorites will tumble and some will not reach the second round. I would expect that France and Portugal may be in for a short stay in South Africa. I would have also said Italy, but they are probably in the easiest group of the eight four-team groups with New Zealand, Paraguay, and Slovakia, so even with their increasing age, the Azzurri should at least make it out of group play.

Some countries had luck on their side during the World Cup draw last December. I would specifically mention the US in that regard. Despite being pared with England, the Americans received a break when the other nations drawn into the same group turned out to be Algeria and Slovakia. On paper, the Yanks should advance.

Two of the more intriguing groups are Group B (with Argentina, Greece, South Korea, and Nigeria) and Group G (Brazil, North Korea,Portugal, and Ivory Coast). Both are extremely competitive and while I certainly don't expect Brazil to lose any points in group play, the potential for Ivory Coast, Greece, or South Korea to reach the knock out stage is strong.

Likewise, there are a pair of supposedly easy groups in which a small dose of luck could propel one of the upstart nations into the Round of 16. Spain was drawn into Group H with Honduras, Switzerland, and Chile and while Honduras should finish last in the group, the runner-up is far from certain. The same is true for Group F. New Zealand will probably finish last. The Kiwis failed to score a single goal in three matches in South Africa last year during the Confederations Cup. This will lead Paraguay and Slovakia to battle for second. I pick Paraguay to prevail.

In Group A, Mexico earned a seed for the first time other than when it hosted the tournament. France, South Africa and Uruguay are the other nations. I predict this may be the most topsy-turvy group. Few experts give South Africa a chance of reaching the second round. The experts may be right, but no host nation has ever failed to make the second round so they have that in their favor. Uruguay can surprise. If they gain a lead, they play a frustrating style of football and can certainly pull of an upset. France IMO is heading for a 2002-like performance where the team failed to win a single match and was eliminated.

I think the US can reach the semis if they win their group. That being said, I also think it is possible for the Americans to go home without winning a single game. Such is the state of the US MNT, which has been maddeningly inconsistent, especially under current coach Bob Bradley.

Should the US somehow win Group C, they have a winnable path to the semis. They would play the second place team in Group D in the Round of 16 (probably Serbia or Australia. Win that game and play Mexico in the quarters, and the Americans do better than at any other World Cup besides the initial one in 1930 where they reached the semis and lost to eventual champion Uruguay.

Notice how my predictions are based on lots of "ifs" for the US. A second place finish in group play likely means a match against Germany in the second round. Although winnable, it is much less likely than beating Australia or Serbia. That would then pair the Americans against Argentina in the quarters.

My other semi-finalists are Argentina, Spain and Brazil. I'm predicting a Brazil-Argentina final, won 3-1 by the Brazilians.

State Dept. issues travel alert for World Cup

Two weeks before the start of the FIFA World Cup, the US State Department has issued a travel alert for Americans traveling to South Africa.

The advisory may be precautionary but it should not be discounted, especially since President Barack Obama has hinted he might travel to South Africa if the American team advances into the second round.

"There is a heightened risk that extremist groups will conduct terrorist acts within South Africa in the near future," the department said in an alert Thursday. "While a number of terrorist threats against the World Cup in South Africa have appeared in the media in recent weeks and months, the U.S. government has no information on any specific, credible threat of attack that any individual or group is planning to coincide with the tournament."

The State Department said it would make any information public on "a specific and credible threat."

The alert cautioned Americans not to rely on public transportation in South Africa as it is

"poorly developed." The alternative, suggested the State Dept., is to use private transportation of

rental cars. Americans are advised to leave "room for an exit" when stopped at intersections or

traffic lights as this is a common tactic in abductions overseas.

American citizens have purchased more tickets than fans of any of the 31 nations traveling to South Africa for the World Cup. Organizers expect more than 300,000 visitors to South Africa.

Bradley chooses injured Onyewu for US WC squad

US MNT coach Bob Bradley continued his mysterious player selections, tabbing injured defender Oguichi Onyewu, who has played only 65 minutes since injuring his knee last October in a World Cup qualifier against Costa Rica.

Earlier this month, Bradley declined to name forward Charlie Davies to the US team, citing the player's lack of fitness as he recovered from multiple injuries sustained in a car accident, also last October.

When healthy, the physical Onyewu is one of the Americans best defenders and a threat to score on corners and other set pieces. However, Onyewu has yet to appear in any matches for his club side, AC Milan of Italy, and looked extremely rusty yesterday in the US MNTs 4-2 loss to the Czech Republic.

It was Onyewu's lack of mobility and his reluctance to challenge his marker on a header that led to the Czech's equalizing goal in the closing moments of the first half, erasing a 1-0 American lead courtesy of a Maurice Edu goal.

Bradley also chose a trio of inexperienced forwards to compliment Jozy Altidore. Davies, prior to his injury, seemed to nail down a starting position at forward with his incredible pace and strong finishing, scoring in the Confederations Cup against Eygpt and in a WC qualifier against Mexico. Bradley picked Edson Buddle (Los Angeles Galaxy), Robbie Findlay (Real Salt Lake) and Hercules Gomez (Puebla-Mexican League). Of the three, Gomez seemed to impress the most, heading in a goal last night which tied the game 2-2 in the second half. Buddle played just the first half of the match and Findlay did not play last night.

Brian Ching (Houston Dynamo) was left off the squad. Fitness appeared to be a factor in that decision as he is recovering from a hamstring injury earlier this year.

I think I correctly predicted 20 of the 23 members of the US team. Onyewu, Buddle, and Findlay were the three I did not guess would make the squad. That left Chad Marshall (Columbus Crew) off the team.

The Americans have one tune-up game in Philadelphia this Saturday against Turkey. The US will depart for South Africa the following day and play a friendly against Australia on June 5, one week before their World Cup begins with a match against heavily favored England.

If the Americans play the way they did yesterday, England will win by two or three goals easily. The first goal conceded was the result of Onyewu's limited mobility and trepidation to jump on his injured knee. The third goal came about when the left fullback, Heath Pierce, who was not named to the World Cup squad, clumsily missed a slide tackle and allowed a player to cross to a wide open teammate in the penalty area.

It is easy to dismiss the American performance. For starters, it was a makeshift team, comprised mainly of reserves hoping to earn the trip to South Africa. Only a few potential starters appeared in the match (defenders Jonathan Bornstein, Steve Cherundolo, and Clarence Goodson and midfielders Edu, Jose Torres, and Stuart Holden).

I thought the Americans gave away possession too easily by opting first for low percentage long ball passes, which allowed the Czechs to quickly counter-attack. In order to beat England, which IMO is beatable, the Americans must be more patient and make better decsions with the ball.

One thing the US has in its favor is that England is not a fit side at the moment. In addition to forward Wayne Rooney, the Three Lions have several defenders recovering from injuries.

The best tactic for the Americans would be to use their speed which few teams in the world can match. Playing a physical game is a strength for the slow-footed Brits, who will try to exploit the American's weakness on defense by sending in crosses from the wing. British giant Peter Crouch, he of the Robot Dance in the 2006 World Cup, will try to beat American defenders on headers.

Many of the US starters either play their club football in England or have played there recently. US players currently on English clubs include Tim Howard, Everton; Jonathan Spector, West Ham United; Jay DeMerit, Watford; Clint Dempsey, Fulham; Stuart Holden, Bolton Wanderers; and Altidore, on loan to Hull. In addition, Landon Donovan played 13 times for Everton during the winter break, scoring twice and earning 11 starts and a legion of fans.

Bob Bradley's dilemna: picking the US World Cup squad

Last night, the U.S. MNT played an exhibition game, losing 4-2 to the Czech Republic. The result itself was meaningless, but it did reveal several glaring problems the American squad will have to resolve before the World Cup starts next month in South Africa.

Defensive lapses led to all four Czech goals. One the first, defender Oguichi Onyewu , playing his first match since injuring his knee in an World Cup qualifier last October, failed to jump and his marker easily won the head ball. On the second, defender Heath Pierce overcommitted, clumsily lunging and missing, allowing a Czech player to cross to an unmarked teammate. Three defenders failed to clear the ball, resulting in the go-ahead score for goal number three. A poor decision in midfield, stripped Sacha Klejstan of the ball and defender Maurice Edu was easily beaten.

In about an hour, Bradley will announce the 23-man US squad headed to South Africa. A number of players appeared to aid their odds of making the team. Likewise, several other players did little to solidify their spot on the roster.

IMO, those players that now seem headed to South Africa include forward Hercules Gomez, who shared the scoring title in the Mexican League; midfielders Robbie Rogers and DeMarcus Beasley; and defender Clarence Goodson, who was involved in both U.S. goals.

OTOH, those players who probably saw their dreams of being on the World Cup squad dashed last night include forward Eddie Johnson, who seemed lost; Klejstan; and Pierce.

The US plays its first WC match on June 12 against mighty England. The other opponents in group play are Algeria and Slovenia, two teams that appear weaker on paper than the Americans, but consistency has never been the strong suit of US Soccer.

Bradley sat most of his starting 11, trying to figure out mainly which players coming off of injuries were fit and which reserves had the best form to make the squad. Bradley chose not to play keeper Tim Howard; defenders Jay DeMerit, Jonathan Spector, Carlos Bocanegra; midfielders Michael Bradley (the coach's son), Ricardo Clark, Bennie Felhaber, and Landon Donovan; forwards Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey.

I thought that in limited action that midfielder Jose Torres looked comfortable in the middle of the field as did Edu before he was switched to central defense in the second half. Holden and Rogers played hard, providing the team with hustle play, but the reality is that the U.S. simply lacks the depth that other nations have in selecting their WC rosters.

That means Bradley is going to take with him some unabashed clunkers like defenders Jonathan Bornstein and Steve Cherundulo.

My prediction for the squad:

goalkeepers: Tim Howard, Brad Guzan, and Marcus Hannehman; defenders: Bocanegra, Bornstein, Cherundulo, DeMerit, Spector, Goodson, and Chad Marshall; midfielders: Beasley, Torres, Bradley, Rogers, Holden, Edu, Felhaber, Donovan, and Clark; and forwards: Altidore, Dempsey, Ching, and Gomez.

Regardless of whom Bob Bradley chooses, the US team has problems both offensively and defensively. On offense, the US plays to many long balls, avoiding patient and intelligent possession football. On defense, the team is vulnerable when opponents play the ball down the wings and cross and the defense is simply terrible on set pieces.

In order to advance out the first round, which experts have given the Americans favorable odds, the US needs to either avoid these kinds of mistakes or minimize them. The side needs three consistent performances and that is no certainty.

The Charlie Davies saga continues

Charlie Davies, upset at not being named to the provisional 30-man roster for the U.S. national soccer team for World Cup 2010, blamed the situation on his French club team.

Davies used his Twitter account to bash officials at the League One side Sochaux. Davies claimed the reason he was omitted from the US MNT was because Sochaux officials refused to sign off on medical clearance so Davies could play for the Americans next month in the World Cup finals in South Africa.

Davies survived a horrific car accident near Washington, D.C. last fall and has slowly been working himself into shape. However, according to U.S. team manager Bob Bradley, Davies was fit enough to train, but not match fit for the World Cup.

Davies singled out Sochaux president Alexandre Lacombe, claiming the executive contacted officials w/ U.S. Soccer emphasizing that Davies was not fit and that Sochaux would not give him medical clearance.

"It's been frustrating for me because I've progressed a lot in training. I continue to progress. While I still have progress to make, I am definitely ready to play," said the 23 year old originally from Manchester, NH. "I feel hurt because I feel like I've been let down by my club."

Davies survived the car accident which left a fellow passenger dead. He suffered a broken left elbow, a broken right femur, tibia, and fibula, a broken nose, forehead, and eye socket. Additionally, he had a ruptured bladder and experienced bleeding on the brain.

Davies only returned to training two months ago.

The U.S. opens its WC schedule on June 12, facing England in the first of three group stage matches. The group also includes Algeria and Slovenia. The top two teams advance to the second round. Most experts give the Americans an excellent chance of advancing to the second round, something the US last did at the 2002 World Cup where the squad reached the quarterfinals. Four years ago, in Germany, the US failed to advance out of the first round, losing to the Czech Republic and Ghana, and drawing eventual champion Italy.

About those destroyed CIA tapes...they were porn

I am in the middle of reading Jane Mayer's excellent book, The Dark Side, and something she reported has not been picked up yet by members of the traditional media. I am talking about the investigation of the interrogation videotapes that were allegedly destroyed by the CIA back in 2005 at the behest of Clandestine Services chief Jose Rodriguez.

According to Mayer, the CIA claims that the tapes were the only record of the interrogation and no verbatim transcripts exist at all.  I find that very hard to believe, given how torture enthusiasts within the Bush Administration touted the actionable intelligence that the tapes supposedly produced. 

The conventional thinking about why the tapes were destroyed was to prevent CIA officials from being prosecuted for war crimes. After reading The Dark Side, I have a different theory: the tapes were destroyed because what they show is Abu Zubaydah's penchant for autoeroticism.

As one CIA officer put it, and another confirmed, "He spent all his time masturbating like a monkey in a zoo. He went at it so much, at some point I heard he injured himself. They had to intervene. He didn't care that they were watching him. I guess he was bored, and mad." ((page 173)

I wonder how all those self-appointed moralists that demanded former Surgeon General Joyceln Elders be fired after she promoted masturbationas an alternative to risky sexual behavior at a UN  AIDS conference would react when they learned that not only did the supposedly effective torture program fail but it turned Abu Zubaydah into a serial wanker.

Reading in Mayer's book about some of the other "enhanced interrogation techniques" caused me to reexamine the focus solely on waterboarding. Clearly, waterboarding is a crime as it has been for more than 100 years in this country. Nonetheless, these other "techniques" which included sleep depravation and stress positions probably caused as much long term damage to prisoners. 

One thing that was common at Gitmo or Abu Gharib or Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan was the constant bombardment of the prisoners with loud music. Some prisoners swear they heard

babies or perhaps their wive's crying. Other prisoners complained of constantly hearing a buzzing sound in the ear even after they had been released from Gitmo.

Ask yourself if you could withstand days of either no sleep or constantly interrupted sleep. Ask yourself if you could live in a room with no light, not knowing whether it was day or night. Ask yourself if you could deal with extreme temperature fluctuations like freezing cold or sweltering rooms. Now combine all of those tactics and you end up with some who is claiming to be mentally incompetent as in the case of Jose Padilla.

What happened to Abu Zubaydah is probably not that different than Padilla. This is how someone who was at Gitmo described Zubaydah's behavior:

Another source said, "he masturbated constantly. A couple of guards were worried about it. He wasn't brazen about it — he wasn't facing the camera. He'd do it at night, facing the wall, but it was rigged so there was no place for him to not be seen. This was closed circuit. He would complain to the interrogator that he would never feel  a woman's touch again, and lament that he would never have children. He freaked though at one point  because there was blood in his ejaculate. He saved it for the doctors in a tissue, to show them in the morning . The doctor said not to worry." (Page 173)

And that is why the CIA destroyed the interrogation tapes. My sense is that had the tapes proven that these enhanced interrogation tapes actually worked, you would see them on cable news as much as that footage of the Al Qaeda training camp with the guys scurrying over the monkey bars.

The official rationale for videotaping the interrogations was that it was done to protect the CIA agents. Then again, the official rationale for destroying the videotapes was that it was also done to protect the agents. Which is it? Come on, this is Circular Reasoning 101. 

At the time former CIA agent Larry Johnson said that the rationales described by former CIA Director Michael Hayden didn't pass the" bullshit test." Moreover, Johnson pointed out that any 14 year old with a Macbook Pro could blur the faces of the CIA agents to protect their identity. 

Sadly, we seem to know the reason why the tapes were destroyed. They were literally torture porn, more disgusting than  Saw, Hostel, or any other of these films that have appeared coincidently during the tenure of the Bush Adminstration.  

Slave wages for airline pilots, cockpit crews

Probably the most startling revelations during the National Transit Safety Board hearings on the fatal crash of a commuter airliner en route to Buffalo which which killed all 49 people on board last February  were how low the salaries for the cockpit crews were and how the cockpit crew of Colgan Air flight 3407 was so fatigued that  expert witnesses testified that this level of fatigue is the equivalent of "drunk driving."

Bill Voss, president of the Flight Safety Foundation, said policies involving fatigue can be difficult to implement because workers don't like having their employers interfere with their personal lives. "It's hard to tell people what to do during their day off," he said.

Voss, a former pilot, said he'd felt fatigue while on the job. "There are times you work long hours," Voss said. "It's insidious. It's just like any other impairment. It's like having too much to drink. It can sneak up on you."

Stephanie Chen, writing for CNN.com, said that the issue was part of an FAA sponsored panel last year:

At an FAA symposium last year, John A. Caldwell, a fatigue management consultant for the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Army, talked about a phenomenon called "micro-sleep." A pilot falls asleep for a fraction of a second to several seconds because of sleep deprivation. Caldwell said his research found that 80 percent of regional pilots admitted to nodding off during a flight.

Officials from a union representing pilots of regional carriers urged that the FAA to deal with this dangerous issue:

“We must address pilot fatigue in all types of flying from long-haul international to multi-leg domestic,” said Captain Rory Kay, the executive air safety chairman of Air Line Pilots Association, Int’l (ALPA), following his testimony. “While ALPA recognizes that individual pilots have the responsibility to report for duty fit to fly, we also recognize that those pilots must be given the tools to fulfill that responsibility.”

According to Chen, a prominent travel writer and blogger, Joe Sharkey, recently wrote in his blog "High Anxiety" that the investigation reveals that problems facing airline pilots extend beyond fatigue. Pilots are also underpaid, which can pressure them to get second jobs and consequently tire them more, he said.

Sharkey pointed the finger directly at the FAA:

The basic ugly truth -- long known by regional airline pilots and by those of us who follow these things -- is that many regional airline pilots work in a culture of chronic fatigue, in a sub-tier of the air-travel industry where captains might make $50,000 a year and first officers might make less than $20,000, and that the official FAA-sanctioned duty-time regulations that supposedly ensure that pilots have enough time to sleep (7 hours, which of course includes the time to get from airport to hotel and back) are a national scandal.

The feckless FAA -- which incidentally has been operating without a director for almost two years -- is complicit in the grim fiction that safety standards are just fine, evidence aside. The N.T.S.B., to its credit, is digging out the ugly reality, case by case, question by question.

Colgan, a subsidiary of Pinnacle Airlines, supplies regional-airline service to Continental and other airlines. The plane that crashed on approach to Buffalo was a 70-seat Dash 8- Q400 commuter turboprop. 

In the cockpit were Captain Marvin D. Renslow, 47, and First Officer Rebecca Shaw, 24. Renslow had slight experience in the Dash 8 Q400; Shaw had more, but had been on the job for only a little over a year. Shaw's base salary was about $16,000 a year (it could have gone up to around $24,000 with overtime), and Renslow was making around $60,000. To save money, Shaw had recently moved in with her parents near Seattle, necessitating her cross-country commute to work.

The lengthy commute was necessitated by cost cutting measures implemented by the regional carrier, Sharkey said:

Colgan, incidentally, has in recent years closed about 10 of its regional crew bases, which now number 20 at locations around the country, with the result that many pilots are now commuting (via free hops on airplanes) long distances to reach the airport where they the clock then starts ticking for their official workday. Also, the word "commuting" describes pilots who need to get to one airport to start a new shift from the airport where their previous flight ended. Shaw was based in Newark but had recently moved back to her native Washington state. 

 NTSB officials said investigations showed Shaw worked at a coffee shop while working as a pilot when she was stationed out of Norfolk, Virginia., reported Chen.

Clearly there is something wrong with THAT picture. Not only are pilots grossly underpaid, but they sometimes take on as much as $100,000 in debt to go to flight school before they are even hired at wages that are lower than a full time employee at McDonald's or Dunkin' Donuts.

 The direct testimony at the hearing noted by Sharkey, includes these startling revelations in response to questions from NTSB member Debbie Hersman to an official with Colgan, Harry Mitchel (CQ), the vice president of flight operations: 

H: "Mr. Mitchel, when you talked about a 16-hour duty day, were you familiar with the first officer's schedule the day before the accident?"

M: "Yes, m'am, I am aware."

H: "So she began the day by waking at 9 or 10 in the morning; she started her commute from Seattle that evening; she commuted from Seattle to Memphis, stayed in a crew lounge in Memphis from midnight to 4 a.m., commuted from Memphis to Newark from 4 to 6.30, and then hung out in a crew lounge in Newark until her 1.30 show-time. The accident occurred that evening. That looks like about a 36-hour clock to me. I think at best maybe there was an opportunity -- I'm not sure if she could get it -- but there might have been the opportunity for 7 hours' sleep during that commute. But it sounds pretty horrible to me. It's not something I would want, to try to achieve my sleep on those legs from Seattle to Memphis, in a crew lounge in Memphis, and then from Memphis to Newark. Do you think this violates kind of the spirit of duty time?"

MITCHEL: "I think it violates the professionalism of a crew member. We can't dictate to a crew member what they do on their own time. We hire professionals, and those professionals we expect should show up fresh and ready to fly that aircraft, and we provide the adequate rest for those individuals. There is no difference: If my wife has a baby and I'm up all night with my new-born and I get no sleep -- same situation. If I am fatigued, I shouldn't fly that airplane."

HERSMAN: "Your commuting policy says crew members shouldn't commute on the day that their shift begins, but she [First Officer Shaw] began the commute on the day before her shift began, but she finished her commute on the day the shift began. How do you monitor this policy and how is it enforced?"

M: "Again, it not a firm hard policy. It's guidelines to our crew member. ... We just give those pilots the guidelines to try to make an appropriate professional decision, and giving those guidelines to our pilots is our responsibility. How that individual or those individuals execute their duties and responsibilities on their own time is up to those individuals." 

Another NTSB member Kitty Higgins zeroed in on earlier testimony which indicated that most Colgan pilots were unable to afford to live in the Newark area on such a low salary, thus necessitating long commutes to work:

HIGGINS: "A hundred thirty-seven Newark-based pilots are commuting, and if I did the math correctly, 20 percent of those pilots live more than 1,000 miles from the Newark base, and another 14 percent live 400 or more miles. So that's more than a third of the pilots based in Newark ... commuting extensive distances. ... How do you define duty time?"

MITCHEL: "Duty time is specifically outlined in the FAA regulations."

H: "And what does it say?"

M: "Unless it's in front of me, I do not have it memorized."

H: "Does duty time include commuting time?"

M: "No, m'am."

H: "So the fact that the first officer [Shaw] essentially commuted on two flights to get to the crew base ... that doesn't count in terms of duty time?"

M: "That is correct."

H: "Do you think that affects the issue of fatigue? What is the nexus between commuting and fatigue?"

M: "... it's very difficult for me to answer that question unless there was a specific issue [Sharkey's comment: Isn't the Buffalo crash the specific issue at hand??] ... We expect fatigue- management of our pilots, and we expect those professional pilots to be able to manage fatigue."

H: "... I know I've flown a red-eye, in a real seat, and it's pretty tough. And the first thing I want to do when I fly a red-eye is to find a bed someplace. In fact, she [Shaw] commented to one of the pilots that was flying her that there was a couch in the crew-room that had her name on it. ... The Colgan policy is [pilots] are not supposed to sleep in the crew-room, but it turns out that they are sleeping in the crew-room. ... What are the policies and procedures?"

M: -- "One of them is sleeping overnight, because it is not an adequate rest facility, is prohibited for our crew members ... First Officer Shaw went through our pre-training program, she went through our CRM [Crew Rest Management] program. Within our CRM program, we gave that pilot [Shaw] some fatigue-management tools through her training. ... if a pilot was found sleeping in the crew-room, we would discuss it with the pilot about what going on. We are also in complete dialog with our pilots on a crew-scheduling committee to try to adapt and prosper commutable scheduling-legs, to assist in this very challenging environment in Newark."

H: "In the crew-member policy handbook it says, and I'm quoting: 'While commuting by flight crew-members is understood and accepted by the company, in no way will commuting be deemed a mitigating factor in the flight crew-member's scheduling, punctuality and demeanor. Flight crew-members will be fully accountable for their timely arrival and appearance at their base. Any and all expenses incurred because of commuting will be borne by the flight crew-member. Crew-members should not attempt to commute to their base the same day they're scheduled to work.' I don't see anywhere in there where there any mention of the risks of commuting or the effects of commuting, in terms of fatigue ... You've got a policy that acknowledges that pilots are going to commute ... You've got a policy that says that crew-rooms are not to be used as motel rooms, but in fact they were -- in many instances, that's what they were being used for, for people to sleep. We've got a standard of the company that says that safety is our mission, our most-important objective -- but we know from previous accidents that fatigue is a huge factor. ... where does that all come together for someone who says, `Wait a minute: What is going on here?'"

Isn't it obvious? Colgan and its parent corporation are trying to squeeze as much profit as possible out of the airline. One way they do this is by cutting corners. If Colgan had to pay for hotel rooms for the flight crew it would have cut into their profit.

Colgan also appeared to cut corners when it came to training the cockpit crew as neither Shaw nor Renslow was experienced enough to deal with the icy conditions on that fateful evening in February. Wall Street Journal reporter Andy Pasztor has details of an in-flight conversation between Shaw and Renslow:

Icing was on the crew's mind approaching Buffalo in snow and mist. Starting four minutes before the crash, and just before rushing through the descent checklist, the crew talked about dramatic buildup of ice around the windshield. "Oh yeah, it's full of ice," the co-pilot said. The captain replied, "that's the most I've seen . . . in a long time." But instead of discussing their situation and agreeing on a plan of action in case of an emergency, the crew immediately switched to discussing personal anecdotes regarding icing.

Co-pilot Shaw, for example, is quoted on the transcript reminiscing about how little experience she had with ice during her early training flying in the Southwest U.S. "I had more actual time (experiencing icing) on my first day" with Colgan "than I did in the 1,600 (flight) hours I had when I came here."

The co-pilot, who had been hired by Colgan less than a year before, went on to say: "I really wouldn't mind going through a winter in the Northeast before I have to upgrade to captain."

Pazstor placed the blame squarely on the cockpit crew:

Data released by the National Transportation Safety Board indicates that the stall wasn't triggered by ice accumulation, but rather Capt. Renslow's pulling back on the controls and overpowering an automatic stall-protection system that was pushing the nose of the plane down in order to regain a safe flying speed.

 The data confirmed earlier reports that Capt. Renslow continued to pull back on the controls to raise the plane's nose during the entire seven seconds the so-called stick-shaker was warning the crew about an impending stall. The normal reaction to such a warning is to lower the nose in order to gain speed.

I disagree with Pasztor's theory as I maintain that fatigue clouded the judgement of the crew, causing them to react counter to their training.  With that in mind, I refer you back to NTSB member Higgins' testimony:

"One of the things I learned since coming here [to the N.T.S.B., investigating aviation accidents] is sometimes the individual does not recognize fatigue. You don't know how tired you really are. Fatigue has been compared to essentially driving drunk. It has the same effect on an individual as alcohol. ...I think that's a recipe for an accident. And that is what we have here."