Brazil, Spain favored to win World Cup

IF form holds, Brazil will be celebrating its record sixth World Cup championship. Of course, these tournaments aren't played on paper so anything can happen.

My prediction is expect some serious surprises in South Africa. That can mean anything. My sense is that a number of favorites will tumble and some will not reach the second round. I would expect that France and Portugal may be in for a short stay in South Africa. I would have also said Italy, but they are probably in the easiest group of the eight four-team groups with New Zealand, Paraguay, and Slovakia, so even with their increasing age, the Azzurri should at least make it out of group play.

Some countries had luck on their side during the World Cup draw last December. I would specifically mention the US in that regard. Despite being pared with England, the Americans received a break when the other nations drawn into the same group turned out to be Algeria and Slovakia. On paper, the Yanks should advance.

Two of the more intriguing groups are Group B (with Argentina, Greece, South Korea, and Nigeria) and Group G (Brazil, North Korea,Portugal, and Ivory Coast). Both are extremely competitive and while I certainly don't expect Brazil to lose any points in group play, the potential for Ivory Coast, Greece, or South Korea to reach the knock out stage is strong.

Likewise, there are a pair of supposedly easy groups in which a small dose of luck could propel one of the upstart nations into the Round of 16. Spain was drawn into Group H with Honduras, Switzerland, and Chile and while Honduras should finish last in the group, the runner-up is far from certain. The same is true for Group F. New Zealand will probably finish last. The Kiwis failed to score a single goal in three matches in South Africa last year during the Confederations Cup. This will lead Paraguay and Slovakia to battle for second. I pick Paraguay to prevail.

In Group A, Mexico earned a seed for the first time other than when it hosted the tournament. France, South Africa and Uruguay are the other nations. I predict this may be the most topsy-turvy group. Few experts give South Africa a chance of reaching the second round. The experts may be right, but no host nation has ever failed to make the second round so they have that in their favor. Uruguay can surprise. If they gain a lead, they play a frustrating style of football and can certainly pull of an upset. France IMO is heading for a 2002-like performance where the team failed to win a single match and was eliminated.

I think the US can reach the semis if they win their group. That being said, I also think it is possible for the Americans to go home without winning a single game. Such is the state of the US MNT, which has been maddeningly inconsistent, especially under current coach Bob Bradley.

Should the US somehow win Group C, they have a winnable path to the semis. They would play the second place team in Group D in the Round of 16 (probably Serbia or Australia. Win that game and play Mexico in the quarters, and the Americans do better than at any other World Cup besides the initial one in 1930 where they reached the semis and lost to eventual champion Uruguay.

Notice how my predictions are based on lots of "ifs" for the US. A second place finish in group play likely means a match against Germany in the second round. Although winnable, it is much less likely than beating Australia or Serbia. That would then pair the Americans against Argentina in the quarters.

My other semi-finalists are Argentina, Spain and Brazil. I'm predicting a Brazil-Argentina final, won 3-1 by the Brazilians.

State Dept. issues travel alert for World Cup

Two weeks before the start of the FIFA World Cup, the US State Department has issued a travel alert for Americans traveling to South Africa.

The advisory may be precautionary but it should not be discounted, especially since President Barack Obama has hinted he might travel to South Africa if the American team advances into the second round.

"There is a heightened risk that extremist groups will conduct terrorist acts within South Africa in the near future," the department said in an alert Thursday. "While a number of terrorist threats against the World Cup in South Africa have appeared in the media in recent weeks and months, the U.S. government has no information on any specific, credible threat of attack that any individual or group is planning to coincide with the tournament."

The State Department said it would make any information public on "a specific and credible threat."

The alert cautioned Americans not to rely on public transportation in South Africa as it is

"poorly developed." The alternative, suggested the State Dept., is to use private transportation of

rental cars. Americans are advised to leave "room for an exit" when stopped at intersections or

traffic lights as this is a common tactic in abductions overseas.

American citizens have purchased more tickets than fans of any of the 31 nations traveling to South Africa for the World Cup. Organizers expect more than 300,000 visitors to South Africa.

Bradley chooses injured Onyewu for US WC squad

US MNT coach Bob Bradley continued his mysterious player selections, tabbing injured defender Oguichi Onyewu, who has played only 65 minutes since injuring his knee last October in a World Cup qualifier against Costa Rica.

Earlier this month, Bradley declined to name forward Charlie Davies to the US team, citing the player's lack of fitness as he recovered from multiple injuries sustained in a car accident, also last October.

When healthy, the physical Onyewu is one of the Americans best defenders and a threat to score on corners and other set pieces. However, Onyewu has yet to appear in any matches for his club side, AC Milan of Italy, and looked extremely rusty yesterday in the US MNTs 4-2 loss to the Czech Republic.

It was Onyewu's lack of mobility and his reluctance to challenge his marker on a header that led to the Czech's equalizing goal in the closing moments of the first half, erasing a 1-0 American lead courtesy of a Maurice Edu goal.

Bradley also chose a trio of inexperienced forwards to compliment Jozy Altidore. Davies, prior to his injury, seemed to nail down a starting position at forward with his incredible pace and strong finishing, scoring in the Confederations Cup against Eygpt and in a WC qualifier against Mexico. Bradley picked Edson Buddle (Los Angeles Galaxy), Robbie Findlay (Real Salt Lake) and Hercules Gomez (Puebla-Mexican League). Of the three, Gomez seemed to impress the most, heading in a goal last night which tied the game 2-2 in the second half. Buddle played just the first half of the match and Findlay did not play last night.

Brian Ching (Houston Dynamo) was left off the squad. Fitness appeared to be a factor in that decision as he is recovering from a hamstring injury earlier this year.

I think I correctly predicted 20 of the 23 members of the US team. Onyewu, Buddle, and Findlay were the three I did not guess would make the squad. That left Chad Marshall (Columbus Crew) off the team.

The Americans have one tune-up game in Philadelphia this Saturday against Turkey. The US will depart for South Africa the following day and play a friendly against Australia on June 5, one week before their World Cup begins with a match against heavily favored England.

If the Americans play the way they did yesterday, England will win by two or three goals easily. The first goal conceded was the result of Onyewu's limited mobility and trepidation to jump on his injured knee. The third goal came about when the left fullback, Heath Pierce, who was not named to the World Cup squad, clumsily missed a slide tackle and allowed a player to cross to a wide open teammate in the penalty area.

It is easy to dismiss the American performance. For starters, it was a makeshift team, comprised mainly of reserves hoping to earn the trip to South Africa. Only a few potential starters appeared in the match (defenders Jonathan Bornstein, Steve Cherundolo, and Clarence Goodson and midfielders Edu, Jose Torres, and Stuart Holden).

I thought the Americans gave away possession too easily by opting first for low percentage long ball passes, which allowed the Czechs to quickly counter-attack. In order to beat England, which IMO is beatable, the Americans must be more patient and make better decsions with the ball.

One thing the US has in its favor is that England is not a fit side at the moment. In addition to forward Wayne Rooney, the Three Lions have several defenders recovering from injuries.

The best tactic for the Americans would be to use their speed which few teams in the world can match. Playing a physical game is a strength for the slow-footed Brits, who will try to exploit the American's weakness on defense by sending in crosses from the wing. British giant Peter Crouch, he of the Robot Dance in the 2006 World Cup, will try to beat American defenders on headers.

Many of the US starters either play their club football in England or have played there recently. US players currently on English clubs include Tim Howard, Everton; Jonathan Spector, West Ham United; Jay DeMerit, Watford; Clint Dempsey, Fulham; Stuart Holden, Bolton Wanderers; and Altidore, on loan to Hull. In addition, Landon Donovan played 13 times for Everton during the winter break, scoring twice and earning 11 starts and a legion of fans.

Bob Bradley's dilemna: picking the US World Cup squad

Last night, the U.S. MNT played an exhibition game, losing 4-2 to the Czech Republic. The result itself was meaningless, but it did reveal several glaring problems the American squad will have to resolve before the World Cup starts next month in South Africa.

Defensive lapses led to all four Czech goals. One the first, defender Oguichi Onyewu , playing his first match since injuring his knee in an World Cup qualifier last October, failed to jump and his marker easily won the head ball. On the second, defender Heath Pierce overcommitted, clumsily lunging and missing, allowing a Czech player to cross to an unmarked teammate. Three defenders failed to clear the ball, resulting in the go-ahead score for goal number three. A poor decision in midfield, stripped Sacha Klejstan of the ball and defender Maurice Edu was easily beaten.

In about an hour, Bradley will announce the 23-man US squad headed to South Africa. A number of players appeared to aid their odds of making the team. Likewise, several other players did little to solidify their spot on the roster.

IMO, those players that now seem headed to South Africa include forward Hercules Gomez, who shared the scoring title in the Mexican League; midfielders Robbie Rogers and DeMarcus Beasley; and defender Clarence Goodson, who was involved in both U.S. goals.

OTOH, those players who probably saw their dreams of being on the World Cup squad dashed last night include forward Eddie Johnson, who seemed lost; Klejstan; and Pierce.

The US plays its first WC match on June 12 against mighty England. The other opponents in group play are Algeria and Slovenia, two teams that appear weaker on paper than the Americans, but consistency has never been the strong suit of US Soccer.

Bradley sat most of his starting 11, trying to figure out mainly which players coming off of injuries were fit and which reserves had the best form to make the squad. Bradley chose not to play keeper Tim Howard; defenders Jay DeMerit, Jonathan Spector, Carlos Bocanegra; midfielders Michael Bradley (the coach's son), Ricardo Clark, Bennie Felhaber, and Landon Donovan; forwards Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey.

I thought that in limited action that midfielder Jose Torres looked comfortable in the middle of the field as did Edu before he was switched to central defense in the second half. Holden and Rogers played hard, providing the team with hustle play, but the reality is that the U.S. simply lacks the depth that other nations have in selecting their WC rosters.

That means Bradley is going to take with him some unabashed clunkers like defenders Jonathan Bornstein and Steve Cherundulo.

My prediction for the squad:

goalkeepers: Tim Howard, Brad Guzan, and Marcus Hannehman; defenders: Bocanegra, Bornstein, Cherundulo, DeMerit, Spector, Goodson, and Chad Marshall; midfielders: Beasley, Torres, Bradley, Rogers, Holden, Edu, Felhaber, Donovan, and Clark; and forwards: Altidore, Dempsey, Ching, and Gomez.

Regardless of whom Bob Bradley chooses, the US team has problems both offensively and defensively. On offense, the US plays to many long balls, avoiding patient and intelligent possession football. On defense, the team is vulnerable when opponents play the ball down the wings and cross and the defense is simply terrible on set pieces.

In order to advance out the first round, which experts have given the Americans favorable odds, the US needs to either avoid these kinds of mistakes or minimize them. The side needs three consistent performances and that is no certainty.

The Charlie Davies saga continues

Charlie Davies, upset at not being named to the provisional 30-man roster for the U.S. national soccer team for World Cup 2010, blamed the situation on his French club team.

Davies used his Twitter account to bash officials at the League One side Sochaux. Davies claimed the reason he was omitted from the US MNT was because Sochaux officials refused to sign off on medical clearance so Davies could play for the Americans next month in the World Cup finals in South Africa.

Davies survived a horrific car accident near Washington, D.C. last fall and has slowly been working himself into shape. However, according to U.S. team manager Bob Bradley, Davies was fit enough to train, but not match fit for the World Cup.

Davies singled out Sochaux president Alexandre Lacombe, claiming the executive contacted officials w/ U.S. Soccer emphasizing that Davies was not fit and that Sochaux would not give him medical clearance.

"It's been frustrating for me because I've progressed a lot in training. I continue to progress. While I still have progress to make, I am definitely ready to play," said the 23 year old originally from Manchester, NH. "I feel hurt because I feel like I've been let down by my club."

Davies survived the car accident which left a fellow passenger dead. He suffered a broken left elbow, a broken right femur, tibia, and fibula, a broken nose, forehead, and eye socket. Additionally, he had a ruptured bladder and experienced bleeding on the brain.

Davies only returned to training two months ago.

The U.S. opens its WC schedule on June 12, facing England in the first of three group stage matches. The group also includes Algeria and Slovenia. The top two teams advance to the second round. Most experts give the Americans an excellent chance of advancing to the second round, something the US last did at the 2002 World Cup where the squad reached the quarterfinals. Four years ago, in Germany, the US failed to advance out of the first round, losing to the Czech Republic and Ghana, and drawing eventual champion Italy.