My prediction is expect some serious surprises in South Africa. That can mean anything. My sense is that a number of favorites will tumble and some will not reach the second round. I would expect that France and Portugal may be in for a short stay in South Africa. I would have also said Italy, but they are probably in the easiest group of the eight four-team groups with New Zealand, Paraguay, and Slovakia, so even with their increasing age, the Azzurri should at least make it out of group play.
Some countries had luck on their side during the World Cup draw last December. I would specifically mention the US in that regard. Despite being pared with England, the Americans received a break when the other nations drawn into the same group turned out to be Algeria and Slovakia. On paper, the Yanks should advance.
Two of the more intriguing groups are Group B (with Argentina, Greece, South Korea, and Nigeria) and Group G (Brazil, North Korea,Portugal, and Ivory Coast). Both are extremely competitive and while I certainly don't expect Brazil to lose any points in group play, the potential for Ivory Coast, Greece, or South Korea to reach the knock out stage is strong.
Likewise, there are a pair of supposedly easy groups in which a small dose of luck could propel one of the upstart nations into the Round of 16. Spain was drawn into Group H with Honduras, Switzerland, and Chile and while Honduras should finish last in the group, the runner-up is far from certain. The same is true for Group F. New Zealand will probably finish last. The Kiwis failed to score a single goal in three matches in South Africa last year during the Confederations Cup. This will lead Paraguay and Slovakia to battle for second. I pick Paraguay to prevail.
In Group A, Mexico earned a seed for the first time other than when it hosted the tournament. France, South Africa and Uruguay are the other nations. I predict this may be the most topsy-turvy group. Few experts give South Africa a chance of reaching the second round. The experts may be right, but no host nation has ever failed to make the second round so they have that in their favor. Uruguay can surprise. If they gain a lead, they play a frustrating style of football and can certainly pull of an upset. France IMO is heading for a 2002-like performance where the team failed to win a single match and was eliminated.
I think the US can reach the semis if they win their group. That being said, I also think it is possible for the Americans to go home without winning a single game. Such is the state of the US MNT, which has been maddeningly inconsistent, especially under current coach Bob Bradley.
Should the US somehow win Group C, they have a winnable path to the semis. They would play the second place team in Group D in the Round of 16 (probably Serbia or Australia. Win that game and play Mexico in the quarters, and the Americans do better than at any other World Cup besides the initial one in 1930 where they reached the semis and lost to eventual champion Uruguay.
Notice how my predictions are based on lots of "ifs" for the US. A second place finish in group play likely means a match against Germany in the second round. Although winnable, it is much less likely than beating Australia or Serbia. That would then pair the Americans against Argentina in the quarters.
My other semi-finalists are Argentina, Spain and Brazil. I'm predicting a Brazil-Argentina final, won 3-1 by the Brazilians.
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